Markets News 

Bundesbank: Germany is not nearing a recession

“FRANKFURT–Germany’s economic slowdown doesn’t appear to be turning into a recession, the country’s central bank said Monday, as temporary bottlenecks in the auto industry are subsiding and the labor market remains strong” writes Tom Fairless for marketwatch.com. Germany’s economy, Europe’s largest, narrowly avoided a recession at the end of last year as a weak trade performance dragged on growth, the country’s statistics office said last week.In its monthly report, published Monday, the Bundesbank said economic growth probably remained soft early in 2019, reflecting weak confidence among companies that are navigating…

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Markets News 

CREDIT SUISSE: Here’s why investors shouldn’t assume China’s economy is already recovering

“Credit Suisse analyst Andrew Garthwaite says signs of Chinese economic growth could be a fake-out” writes Marley Jay for businessinsider.com. And without lax lending standards, he says industrial production and economic growth won’t improve.After all, China’s government said the economy cooled off in 2018 and grew at its slowest pace since 1990.In the end, no matter where you look, it’s become a tall order to get a solid reading on the economy.”We need to see credit growth increase and much more fiscal stimulus (which is a quarter of 2015 levels…

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Futures Markets News 

Wall Street bear warns the earnings slowdown will crush rally

“Wall Street bear Peter Boockvar warns that 2019’s market rally is flawed, and a major setback will slam stocks” writes unknown author for cnbc.com. According to Boockvar, it’s not unreasonable to worry about the earnings slowdown developing into a full-blown earnings recession.His chief reasons include sluggish global growth, the earnings slowdown and a fuzzy economics picture.”The higher the market goes [and] the lower earnings estimates go, the more expensive the market is getting.”. “With respect to corporate earnings, we’re seeing a decline in earnings expectations for this year.”.  Source: cnbc.com

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News Oil 

$60 to $70 is a fair price for a barrel of oil, Egypt’s petroleum minister says

“There is a fair price for a barrel of oil and OPEC and its non-OPEC partners are close to achieving it through their deal to cut production, according to Egypt’s Petroleum Minister Tarek El-Molla” writes Mohd Jailanee Othman for cnbc.com. “It is in the range between $60 and $70 a barrel … somewhere in this bracket of price,” El Molla told CNBC on Sunday when asked if oil prices were at an acceptable level to keep producers and consumers happy.If we see prices go down below a certain price then…

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News 

Risk of global recession may be low but we are heading for slowdown

“The good news at the start of 2019 is that the risk of an outright global recession is low” writes Kenneth Rogoff for theguardian.com. The bad news is that we are heading into a year of synchronised global deceleration; growth will fall toward – and, in some cases, below – potential in most regions.There may be enough positive factors to make this a relatively decent, if mediocre, year for the global economy.The chief risks include slowdowns in the US or China, higher US inflation and a subsequent tightening by the…

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News Stocks 

Barron’s spotlights three stocks bucking the earnings slowdown

“Shares are pricey, at 28 times forward earnings estimates, but earnings are expected to grow by double-digit percentages over the next few years” writes Jack Hough for marketwatch.com. Better to screen for something rarer now: companies whose earnings estimates for the first quarter of 2019 have been rising.Shares fetch 20 times projected 2019 earnings but only 15 times free cash flow. The stock goes for 11 times projected 2019 earnings.In M&T’s latest earnings call in mid-January, results beat expectations on solid loan growth and rising margins. Source: marketwatch.com

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News 

FTSE 100 slips from four-month high after German factory slump stokes recession fears

“The FTSE 100 has slipped off a four-month high after another shock slowdown in German factories fuelled fears that the eurozone economy is sliding towards recession” writes Jeremy Warner for telegraph.co.uk. German factory orders growth slumped 7pc year-on-year in December, the biggest drop since 2012, as dwindling foreign demand pulled the sector into contraction territory for a second straight month. Economists had expected monthly growth to enjoy a modest… Source: telegraph.co.uk

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Markets News 

In a tough market, young South Koreans vie for the security of government jobs

“Many analysts point to the widening gap between the behemoth family-owned conglomerates that dominate the South Korean economy, such as Samsung and LG, and other companies” writes Victoria Kim for latimes.com. Large corporations including the chaebol, as they are known, accounted for about half of the revenue in South Korea in 2017 but provided only 20% of the jobs in the country, according to the most recent figures available from the government. And while their share of the economy grew, the number of jobs they offered dropped, because of consolidation…

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AUD News 

Will AUD/USD recapture its seasonal support this February month?

“In that light, don’t expect much from the seasonal trade above this year” reports forexlive.com. Even if AUD/USD were to rise this year, I would argue that is owes more to other developments than the seasonal trade flow seen above. It’s all about the direction of trade talks at this point in time so be wary not to get caught out chasing shadows.The most important of which would be how US-China trade talks develop in the coming weeks. Source: forexlive.com

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