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EUR/USD Forecast Feb. 18-22 – Soft German and eurozone data weighing on euro

“The German and eurozone economies are in slowdown mode, as inflation, GDP and manufacturing data continue to struggle” writes Kenny Fisher for forexcrunch.com. We’ll also get a look at German and  eurozone PMIs.If there is a breakthrough in the conflict between the U.S. and China, sentiment could improve for the euro. Source: forexcrunch.com

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Euro also vulnerable to a hard Brexit – BofAML

“In a note to its clients, BofAML notes that a hard Brexit would also be a shock for the Eurozone economy at a time when momentum is already slowing” reports forexlive.com. The firm argues that this would present a downside case not only for the pound but for EUR/USD and EUR/JPY as well.”If a hard Brexit triggers a recession in the weak parts of the Eurozone, such as in Italy, the economy may be affected more than markets currently expect”, says the note.Adding that “if markets question the sustainability of…

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EUR/USD Forecast Feb. 11-15 – Euro slips on weak retail sales, manufacturing reports

“The German and eurozone economies continue to produce weak numbers, underscored by weak scores in retail sales and manufacturing” writes Kenny Fisher for forexcrunch.com. The bank revised downwards its growth forecast for the eurozone to 1.9% in 2018, from 2.1% in the November forecast.For 2019, the growth forecast has also been revised down to 1.5%, compared to 1.9% in the November forecast.The European Commission economic forecasts projected moderate growth in the eurozone for 2019, but warned that significant uncertainties lie ahead.Eurozone retail sales plunged 1.6% in January, its worst reading…

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German exports rose in December

“German exports rose in December compared with November, according to official data, possibly offering some relief amid mounting concern about a slowdown in both the eurozone and its largest economy” writes Fabiana Negrin Ochoa for marketwatch.com. The rise in German exports follows an bleak string of weak economic data–including a slump in manufacturing orders–that has fanned fears that Germany’s economy is faltering.The Federal Statistical Office said Friday that exports increased 1.5% from the month before while imports rose 1.2%, with both figures taking into account seasonal swings and calendar effects.Germany’s…

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Treasurys follow European yields lower after cut to eurozone growth forecasts

“The German 10-year bond yield TMBMKDE-10Y, -24.31% retreated 4.4 basis points to 0.121%, while the Italian 10-year yield rose 7.5 basis points to 2.912%” writes Sunny Oh for marketwatch.com. The central bank also snipped its growth expectations for the United Kingdom to 1.2% this year from 1.7%.Treasury yields fell in early Thursday trading, dragged lower by a slide in European yields after eurozone growth expectations for this year were slashed, adding to mounting concerns a global economic slowdown was under way.On the other hand, Italian government paper sold off as…

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French growth slows over anti-government protests

“PARIS–French growth slowed in the fourth quarter as anti-government protests hit business activity” writes Noemie Bisserbe for marketwatch.com. Macron risks pushing France’s deficit above the EU-mandated 3% limit of gross domestic product in his effort to mollify protesters with public spending.The 29 forecasters tracked by Consensus Economics now expect the eurozone economy to grow by 1.5% in 2019, which would be its slowest expansion since 2014.The eurozone’s second-biggest economy grew 0.3% in the fourth quarter, down from 0.4% in the third quarter, the Insee statistics agency said in a first…

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Eurozone faces growing risks, Draghi warns, as economic slowdown takes hold 

“The eurozone economy is slowing sharply and faces a series of major risks from global protectionism, threats to the post-war world order, Brexit, weak emerging markets and financial market volatility, Mario Draghi has warned” writes Tim Wallace for telegraph.co.uk. This slowdown may be short-lived and the European Central Bank president said he hoped the economy would bounce back in the near future.But he warned “the risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook have moved to the downside on account of persistent uncertainties”.Mr Draghi said “weaker growth momentum” and said “an increase…

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