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‘Verdammt’: Just when you thought the worst was over, Germany’s economy moved dangerously close to falling ‘over the edge’ into recession

“Whatever happened in the second half of last year got worse in Q1, and is now threatening to push the German economy over the edge.”” writes Will Martin for businessinsider.com. They had expressed hope that with those factors out of the way the economy would pick up again in 2019.Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Claus Vistesen had a similarly bleak message about the Ifo survey, noting that the headline figure was “horrible,” and delivers a “somber message” about the German economy.Germany may have narrowly avoided a technical recession at the end of 2018,…

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According to wealthy investor Nick Hanauer, the wrong approach to capitalism has been weakening the American Dream for the past 40 years

“He doesn’t see it as a coincidence that inequality has risen and mobility fallen over the past 40 years” writes Richard Feloni for businessinsider.com. In an interview with Business Insider last year, Hanauer said, “You can have a highly innovative capitalist economy where everyone benefits from it.”It’s just objectively true, if you look at the numbers, that mobility in the United States has declined. Source: businessinsider.com

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Germany February Ifo business climate index 98.5 vs 98.9 expected

“A measure of business conditions and sentiment/expectations towards the German economy” reports forexlive.com. Do be reminded the Ifo changed the indicator measurement to take into account of services data too as of April 2018.Economic sentiment continues to dwindle and that’s reflective of the dark rain clouds that have been hanging over the German economy since last year. Not a major release by any means but this will continue to underscore weaker sentiment towards the Eurozone economy as a whole, and in turn the euro. Source: forexlive.com

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JP Morgan economists now see the economy growing at just 1.5% pace this quarter

“JP Morgan economists now see the economy growing at just 1.5 percent in the first quarter, and they trimmed back fourth quarter growth as well on signs of slowing business spending” writes Patti Domm for cnbc.com. Many economists still expect fourth quarter growth of just above 2 percent for the quarter, Inventory data in the durable goods report was also short of expectations, and JP Morgan economists now see inventories at only $31 billion annual rate in the fourth quarter. “Business investment in Q4 should be stronger than Q3 as…

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Fed’s Bullard says economy is slowing down but doesn’t see recession

“Louis Fed President James Bullard said Thursday he thinks the economy is slowing but he’s not too worried about the risk of a recession” writes Senior Economics Reporter for marketwatch.com. “It does seem the economy is slowing down some – not terribly – but some,” Bullard said in an interview on CNBC. Bullard said he expects the economy to slow to a 2.25% annual rate this year from 3% in 2018.”I think you’d have to see some inflation decline or inflation expectations decline…possibly with some economic weakness to get a…

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Leading index for U.S. economy falls in January, but there’s a catch

“Fixes month for leading index and the duration of the decline” writes Jeffry Bartash for marketwatch.com. What happened: The decline in the leading index stemmed mostly from an increase in initial jobless claims and “weaknesses in the labor market,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, director of economic research at the privately run board.What’s got manufacturers and other American companies worried, though, is the festering trade dispute with China and a slowing global economy.The numbers: A survey of economic conditions in the U.S. fell in January and reflected a recent slowdown in growth,…

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News Regulators 

Fed officials cited fears about China and Europe in backing away from rate hikes

“Additionally, Fed officials became increasingly nervous about government policy, especially Trump’s trade negotiations and the prospect of further shutdowns” reports washingtonexaminer.com. That decision was widely regarded as a major reversal from Fed officials’ suggests in previous months that they were planning on tightening monetary policy throughout 2019. Source: washingtonexaminer.com

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Markets News Stocks 

Stock market extends rally as Fed minutes show fissures on policy; Nasdaq marks longest win streak since August

“Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida said Wednesday after minutes were released that he wasn’t even sure the economy is slowing down” writes Mark Decambre for marketwatch.com. U.S. stocks finished higher Wednesday after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting showed central bankers were divided on raising rates further in 2019. Source: marketwatch.com

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Nasdaq extends winning streak to 8th session after Fed minutes

“Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida said Wednesday after minutes were released that he wasn’t even sure the economy is slowing down” writes Mark Decambre for marketwatch.com. U.S. stocks finished higher Wednesday after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting showed central bankers were divided on raising rates further in 2019. Source: marketwatch.com

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