News 

No recession but global growth will slow to a crawl this year, Janus Henderson says

“The world economy is headed for a period of “dull, low” growth, according to fund manager Janus Henderson, but the risk of an outright recession remains small” writes Thomas Lohnes for cnbc.com. “Our central forecast is not for a recession… It is just for dull, low growth,” she added.”There is definitely a slowdown in the momentum of the global economy.Most economists, as well as some the world’s business elite, agree that economic growth is slowing but policymakers have expressed some hope for a soft landing rather than a full-blown recession.I…

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Markets News 

CREDIT SUISSE: Here’s why investors shouldn’t assume China’s economy is already recovering

“Credit Suisse analyst Andrew Garthwaite says signs of Chinese economic growth could be a fake-out” writes Marley Jay for businessinsider.com. And without lax lending standards, he says industrial production and economic growth won’t improve.After all, China’s government said the economy cooled off in 2018 and grew at its slowest pace since 1990.In the end, no matter where you look, it’s become a tall order to get a solid reading on the economy.”We need to see credit growth increase and much more fiscal stimulus (which is a quarter of 2015 levels…

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News Regulators 

Fed policymakers see one U.S. rate hike, or none, as growth slows

“In December, when the Fed raised interest rates a fourth time that year, most Fed policymakers penciled in two more rate hikes for this year” reports businessinsider.com. This week, as disappointing U.S. retail sales and industrial production data raised the prospect that the U.S. economy will slow more quickly than expected, three Fed policymakers gave an answer: one rate hike, or perhaps none at all.The first broad read of their views will come in March, when the Fed next releases forecasts for the economy and rates. Source: businessinsider.com

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Markets News Stocks 

US stocks set to follow Asia markets lower after report that US-China trade talks are ‘like pulling teeth’

“US stocks are set to decline on Friday, following Asian markets lower on reignited pessimism about US-China trade talks, where there’s reports of tensions as leaders from both nations meet in Beijing this week” writes Trista Kelley for businessinsider.com. Time is of the essence since March 1 marks the scheduled end of the 90-day pause in the trade war.The South China Morning Post, citing sources, reported that trade negotiators “remain far apart on key issues,” including equal market access and intellectual property protection.Then there’s jitters about the US economy after…

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News 

Retail sales slump endangers Trump goal of 3% GDP

“The government on Thursday said retail sales fell a preliminary 1.2% in December in the biggest plunge in nine years” writes Jeffry Bartash for marketwatch.com. Read: The stunning drop in retail sales has Wall Street’s economists skeptical Before the retail report, economists polled by MarketWatch estimated the U.S. would grow 2.7% in the fourth quarter.Trump and his senior economic advisers have steadfastly contended their pro-business policies would regularly drive growth above 3% again. Source: marketwatch.com

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News 

The Internet Was Built On The Free Labor Of Open Source Developers. Is That Sustainable?

“On the other hand, regulating the production of open source software (for example, establishing an organization similar to the National Science Foundation to distribute publicly-funded grants to open source software projects) undermines the main advantages of open source development” writes Open Source for vice.com. Titled “The Simple Economics of Open Source,” Lerner and Tirole identified multiple immediate and long term benefits gained by open source developers such that the role of altruism in open source development was reduced to an accidental byproduct.After a year of interviewing hundreds of open source…

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Markets News 

3 reasons why the housing market isn’t as strong as it seems

“Here are three reasons why the housing market is underperforming the broader economy: First, student debt” writes Sanjiv Das for marketwatch.com. It’s worth noting the deterioration in the housing market because of its effect on the broader economy.So, what happens in the housing market is quickly felt across our country.Accordingly, as the CEO of a large mortgage company, I would expect the housing market to be robust, given the economic backdrop.By many measures, the U.S. economy is doing extremely well — but when it comes to the nation’s housing market,…

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Markets News 

Retail sales sink 1.2% in December in the worst plunge in nine years

“Sales fell in every retail category except auto dealers and home centers” writes Jeffry Bartash for marketwatch.com. The disappointing drop in sales battered stocks in Thursday trades, but many economists were skeptical that sales were quite the disaster the report seemed to indicate.The stock market tanked in December and talk of recession briefly became all the rage, and that may have hurt sales. Source: marketwatch.com

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News 

Eskom split to minimize risks to South Africa, Ramaphosa says

“Locally referred to as “load-shedding”, the power cuts are an emergency measure to prevent the power system from a total collapse, Eskom says” reports businessinsider.com. Eskom hopes to end the power cuts by the end of the week.Ramaphosa said in parliament that cost-cutting at Eskom would not necessarily entail job cuts. Eskom started cutting power on Sunday and intensified outages on Monday after seven generating units unexpectedly went offline.For ordinary South Africans the cuts mean some mothers are struggling to cook for their children and traffic gridlock in major cities…

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News 

U.S. retail sales post biggest drop in nine years in December

“In December, online and mail-order retail sales dropped 3.9 percent, the biggest drop since November 2008, after increasing 2.8 percent in November” reports businessinsider.com. December’s sharp drop in core retail sales suggested a moderation in the pace of consumer spending in the fourth quarter.The December retail sales report was delayed by a 35-day partial shutdown of the federal government that ended on Jan. 25.Data for November was revised slightly down to show retail sales edging up 0.1 percent instead of gaining 0.2 percent as previously reported.No date has been set…

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