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Frankfurt Trading Session Heads Up Tuesday, August 13, 2019

Frankfurt opening news digest

Trump’s Trade Wars Are Hurting Midwest Farmers, Banks, and State Coffers

Trump’s trade wars are exacerbating problems in the U.S. agricultural sector. The downturn is being felt in state revenues, agricultural loan performance and corporate earnings. Banks with loan exposures to the Midwest need to review their portfolios closely.


NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Long-Term Price Trend Breaking Down?

The New Zealand Dollar is on the cusp of breaking trend support guiding nearly two decades of gains, setting the stage for a long-term decline against its US counterpart.


US Dollar Gains vs Nordic FX, EURSEK Aiming to Re-Test 2009 High

The US Dollar continues to show strength against Nordic currencies, with USDNOK and USDSEK appearing to resume their previous uptrends. EURSEK is aiming to re-test 2009 highs.


S&P 500 Retreats and VIX Rises as Trade War Fears Remain Front and Center

Chinese data for July, diplomatic pressure around Hong Kong, South Korea-Japan moves and No-Deal Brexit support all qualify as fronts


ASX 200 Fightback Still Leaves it Shy of Important Resistance

The ASX 200 has inched back upward after taking a huge hit on renewed trade-war worries. The bulls still have a lot to do however.


US Dollar May Rise Versus SGD as 2019 Singapore Growth Stalls?

The US Dollar may rise against SGD even though the MAS showed patience on the 2019 Singapore GDP outlook downgrade. It may benefit from haven demand on US-China trade war fears.


AUDUSD Rate Outlook Clouded by Mixed RBA Rhetoric

AUDUSD struggles to hold its ground amid the threat of a US-China trade war, but there seems to be a rift within the RBA amid the recent batch of mixed comments.


Fundamental Trading Forecast – Would Trump Act to Devalue the Dollar in Trade Wars?

Trade wars remains one of the most onerous and abstract risks still facing our global economy


Yen Eyes 2016 Levels as Argentine Peso Collapses, Sentiment Sours

The Japanese Yen inched closer to 2016 levels as US-China trade tensions and a collapse in the Argentine Peso soured sentiment. APAC shares may decline, further weakening AUD/USD.


NZ: Housing market slowing – Westpac

Dominick Stephens, chief economist at Westpac, notes that the New Zealand’s housing market slowed sharply over the first half of 2019. Key Quotes “Mea


NZD/USD technical analysis: Immediate falling trend-line questions 0.6440/39 horizontal support

NZD/USD keeps struggling between a 2-day old horizontal support and an immediate descending resistance-line while taking rounds to 0.6450 early Tuesday.


Japan Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) meets expectations (-0.1%) in June

Japan Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) meets expectations (-0.1%) in June


Australia: Business conditions deteriorate in July – ANZ

Catherine Birch, senior economist at ANZ, notes that Australian business conditions weakened slightly to 2.4 in July from 3.6 in June. Key Quotes “Aft


GBP/USD keeps buyers away ahead of UK employment, US CPI

Given the latest Brexit-negative headlines and fresh risk-on, GBP/USD again tilts southwards as it trades near 1.2065 ahead of the UK open on Tuesday.


EUR/USD: Rangeplay continues ahead of key German data

EUR/USD is lacking a clear directional bias for the fifth straight day. The pair charted a Doji candle – a sign of indecision – last Tuesday and has r


S. Korean Pres. Moon: S. Korea economic fundamentals are strong despite uncertainty

The South Korean President Moon Jae-in was on the wires last hour, via Reuters, making some comments on the economic situation amid ongoing South Kore


Goldman Sachs downs Antipodeans’ forecasts over the coming months

In the latest client note, analysts at the US investment banking giant, Goldman Sachs, revised down their outlook on the Antipodeans over the coming m


USD/CHF bounces off multi-month low as risk-tone recovers

With the recent pullback in risk sentiment, USD/CHF recovers from the September 2018 low while trading near 0.9717 during early Tuesday.


USD/JPY ekes out gains despite risk-off in Asian equities

USD/JPY, which traded at lows near 105.00 in early Asian, rose to a session high of 105.58 a few minutes before press time despite the losses in the A


EUR/GBP technical analysis: Monday’s Doji indicates bull exhaustion

EUR/GBP witnessed a two-way business before closing on a flat note on Monday. Essentially, the pair created a Doji candle, a sign of indecision in the


South Korea Money Supply Growth above forecasts (6.7%) in June: Actual (7.1%)

South Korea Money Supply Growth above forecasts (6.7%) in June: Actual (7.1%)


UK PM Johnson expects EU to cave in to save Ireland from ‘no-deal’ Brexit – The Sun

The Sun newspaper quoted a source late-Monday, citing that the UK PM Boris Johnson believes the European Union (EU) will yield at the last minute and


German yield curve inverts as 10-year yield drops below 3-month yield

Germany’s bond yield curve has inverted with the 10-year yield now trading below the yield on the 3-month bond. The spread between the two fell below


China to review anti-dumping measures on Indian optical fiber

Reuters is out with the latest headlines, citing that China is considering reviewing anti-dumping measures on the Indian optical fiber. This is a welc


Hong Kong’s Lam: Hong Kong’s economy deteriorating further – Bloomberg

Hong Kong’s society is in a chaotic situation and its economy is deteriorating further, Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam reportedly said on Tuesda


Gold technical analysis: Eyes fresh 6-year highs despite overbought conditions

Gold is just $3 short of setting a fresh six-year high above $1,520. The yellow metal continues to rise despite technical indicators like the 14-day r


AUD/NZD technical analysis: 100-DMA exerts downside pressure

Despite its latest recovery, AUD/NZD remains below the 100-day simple moving average (DMA) while trading near 1.0475 on early Tuesday.


Iron ore prices to rebound to $115/ton in 3 months – Goldman Sachs

In contrast to the downward revision to 2019 iron-ore by JP Morgan, the analysts at Goldman Sachs boosts their iron-ore price outlook, in the latest c


AUD/USD keeps gains near 0.6760 after NAB data

AUD/USD remains mildly bid near 0.6760 after National Bank of Australia (NAB) mixed batch of Australian business surveys. Australia’s business confide


AUD/JPY shows little reaction to AU NAB business survey results

Despite witnessing upbeat numbers of Australia’s NAB survey, the AUD/JPY remains modestly unchanged near 71.23 on early Tuesday.


Australia National Australia Bank’s Business Conditions above forecasts (1) in July: Actual (2)

Australia National Australia Bank’s Business Conditions above forecasts (1) in July: Actual (2)


Australia NAB business survey beats estimates for July, Aussie keeps highs

Australia’s July Business Survey released by the National Australia Bank (NAB) report – Confidence in July at 4 vs. 2 in June and 3 expected. Conditio


Australia National Australia Bank’s Business Confidence above expectations (3) in July: Actual (4)

Australia National Australia Bank’s Business Confidence above expectations (3) in July: Actual (4)


WTI technical analysis: Bulls hold above 50% retracement level with eyes on 56 handle

Bulls hold above 50% Fibo as price corrects and firms in 54 handle. Bears will target 47.56 as the 78.6% Fibo on a break below 50.50. WTI is currentl


USD/CNH technical analysis: Rising wedge on H1 keeps sellers hopeful for 200-hour EMA

USD/CNH portrays a bearish technical pattern on the hourly chart while taking rounds to 7.0960 during the early Asian session on Tuesday.


PBOC sets Yuan reference rate at 7.0326

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has set the Yuan reference rate at 7.0326 vs Monday’s fix of 7.0211.


USD/JPY holding the the 105 handle but risk-off points to further declines

USD/JPY probed lower to 105.05 to mark a seven-month low overnight following another flight to safety as geopolitics continue to mount up while the Ye


Gold hits record high in Argentinian Peso terms

Gold prices rose to a record high of N$ (Argentinan Peso) 84,558 on Monday, as investors were spooked by the prospects of populist left-leaning Peroni


USD/CAD again aims for 100-day EMA amid WTI strength

With WTI prices remaining firm, the USD/CAD pair again aims to confront 100-day exponential moving average (EMA).


Jeffrey Epstein told a reporter he saw Silicon Valley notables doing drugs and ‘arranging for sex’

Epstein reportedly said he knew damaging information about the tech industry’s elite. But the article doesn’t name names.


Elon Musk denies Jeffrey Epstein advised him or Tesla during the company’s bungled attempt to go private

Epstein told a reporter he was in contact with the Tesla CEO or someone close to him who sought help to find a new chairman as the scheme unraveled.


Facebook warns its marketing partners against scraping after a startup was caught saving millions of users’ data

Hyp3r harvested millions of Instagram users’ data, tracked their locations, and saved their Stories.


Salesforce’s stock is a bargain right now and will stay that way even after it reports earnings next week, Wall Street analysts say

Despite a boatload of massive acquisitions and concerns about the core business, Wall Street thinks Salesforce is a keeper.


S&P 500 Retreats and VIX Rises as Trade War Fears Remain Front and Center (Trading Video)

Trade War Talking Points: • Though no ‘major’ escalations have followed the previous week’s new US tariffs and USDCNH cross of 7.00, trade wars remain focus …


Cheer Up


When I was young, people called me a gambler. As the scale of my operations increased I became known as a speculator. Now I am called a banker. But I have been doing the same thing all the time. Sir Ernest Cassel


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Have a nice trading!

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