Heads-up News 

Frankfurt Trading Session Heads Up Friday, August 16, 2019

Frankfurt opening news digest

Is This Really Currency War Or Just A Tantrum?

The yuan–which is not convertible–cannot afford a war with the dollar, nor can the U.S. Federal Reserve control its currency so as to use it as a weapon against China.


US Dollar May Gain Versus Ringgit Despite Malaysia GDP Surprise

The US Dollar may resume its advance against MYR after Malaysian GDP surprised to the upside. The USD/MYR could rise down the road if trade war fears continue fueling haven demand.


Gold Prices Are the Best Haven to Yield Curve-Based Recession Fears

As recession fears and financial stability risks rise arise from this unfamiliar source, gold may be the best signal and haven


Gold Price Rise May Extend But Signs of Exhaustion Are Emerging

Gold prices may continue inching upward but technical cues pointing to ebbing momentum are warning of a possible pullback before the broader rise resumes.


US Dollar and Yen May Rise on Japan, South Korea Trade War

The US Dollar and Japanese Yen may extend gains if the trade war between Japan and South Korea boosts demand for liquidity, though KRW weakness may be stemmed by FX intervention.


S&P 500 Outlook Steadies Despite Recession Fears, EURUSD Tumble Not a Data Move

Risk aversion was clearly in play Wednesday with the range of specualtive assets from Dow to carry trade under uniform, heavy pressure


EURGBP Reversal of 14-Week Uptrend May Accelerate in Week Ahead

EURGBP’s consecutive 14-week climb may be coming to an end and could in fact accelerate in the week ahead if Italian politics cause capital flight from the Euro.


Euro Decline Eyed, NZD too as Manufacturing Shrinks Most Since 2012

The Euro downtrend is in focus after the ECB dialed up stimulus expectations. NZD/USD is also at risk after New Zealand manufacturing PMI contracted by the most since 2012.


USD/CHF technical analysis: Heads to 0.9800/05 supply-zone amid bullish MACD

Carrying its early week’s gradual recovery forward, USD/CHF rises to a week’s top while taking the bids to 0.9790 ahead of Friday’s European open.


China: Rocky road lay ahead, but opportunities remain – Westpac

Westpac analysts point out that the past month has seen a decisive turn in US/China trade relations after President Trump imposed a 10% tariff on the


Indian Rupee becomes Asia’s worst performer as carry trades go awry

According to a story carried by Bloomberg, the Indian Rupee emerged the worst performers amongst the Asian currencies amid ongoing geopolitical and US


India: Growth downgrade – ANZ

ANZ analysts are further lowering their India’s GDP forecasts for both FY2020 and FY2021 with revised forecasts now standing at 6.2% and 6.5% compared


GBP/USD: Modestly unchanged ahead of British Chancellor’s visit to Berlin

Following its data-backed recovery, the GBP/USD pair trades modestly unchanged to 1.2090 while heading into the London open on Friday.


Indonesian Pres. Widodo: Economy’s capacity to manage global economic risks, disaster must be expanded

In a state of the union address to parliament on Friday, Indonesian President Joko Widodo spoke about the economic situation and its capability to fen


EUR/USD: Hovers around 1.11, focus on US-German yield spread

EUR/USD risks extending the three-day losing streak as the US-German bond yield differential could widen on the dovish European Central Bank (ECB) exp


Likelihood of Trump intervention in the US dollar – Citi

The analysts at Citi Group offer their thoughts on the likelihood of intervention from the US President Trump in the US dollar in the coming months. K


USD/CAD technical analysis: Struggles between 200-DMA and 50% Fibo. inside rising channel

Despite registering another failure to rise past 50% Fibonacci retracement, USD/CAD trades modestly unchanged due to 200-DMA support.


AUD/USD technical analysis: At session highs, further gains likely

AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.6791, the highest point of the day, and could extend the gains toward 0.6850. This is because the hourly chart is re


Fed Chief Powell to address Jackson Hole Symposium on August 23rd

The US Federal Reserve said in its statement on Thursday, Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to address an annual central bank forum in Jackson Hole,


USD/JPY gains 25 pips as S&P 500 futures and treasury yields rise

USD/JPY has gained 25 pips in the last couple of hours, possibly tracking the rise in the futures on the S&P 500 and the US treasury yields. As of wri


Senior US Official: US is aware of reports of missile launch from N. Korea

A senior US Administration official came out on the wires last minutes, via Reuters, noting that the US is aware of reports of a missile launch from N


China’s NDRC: China to stick to deleveraging, avoiding risks

Reuters reports the latest comments from China’s top economic planner’s, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), with the key headlines


Asian stocks trade mixed amid sharp drop in bond yields

Asian stocks are trading mixed Friday morning amid a relentless slide in the government bond yields across the globe. As of writing, Japan’s Nikkei is


South Korea Trade Balance climbed from previous $2.4B to $5.403B in July

South Korea Trade Balance climbed from previous $2.4B to $5.403B in July


USD to weaken over the medium-term – Goldman Sachs

The Goldman Sachs analysts offer an outlook on the Fed’s interest rate policy and the US dollar over the coming months, in the latest overnight note.


US economy is taking a turn for the worse – World’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates

The US economy is taking a turn for the worse and there is a 40% chance America could experience a recession before the 2020 presidential election, Ra


Banxico’s de Leon: Peso to see new bouts of volatility if trade tensions intensify, data surprises

The Bank of Mexico (Banxico), the country’s central bank, Governor Diaz de Leon was on the wires last minutes, via Reuters, commenting on the economic


USD/CNY shows less reaction to trade/political news amid PBOC injection

Despite on-going trade/political pessimism, the USD/CNY pair manages to take the bids near 7.0394 during early Friday.


NZD/USD technical analysis: On the back foot, falling channel intact

NZD/USD is currently trading at session lows near 0.6430, having faced rejection at the upper edge of the falling channel in the late US trading hours


PBOC injects net CNY 300 bn via OMO this week

The Chinese central bank (PBOC) injected a net CNY 300 billion via open market operations (OMO) this week when compared to no net injection or withdra


Gold technical analysis: The 38.2% ahead of a full retracement is on the cards on Dollar strength

Gold prices were grinding their ways higher on Thursday but they are yet to break the 1528/30s. Bulls need to get over there in order to continue high


USD/IDR technical analysis: Sellers aim for 14,166/70 on another pullback from 61.8% Fibo.

With its another U-turn from 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of April-June downpour, USD/IDR aims to revisit 50-day EMA on early Friday.


PBOC sets Yuan reference rate at 7.0312

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has set the Yuan reference rate at 7.0312, beating the Reuters estimate of 7.0306 and up from Thursday’s fix of 7.02


BOJ trims purchases of 5-10 year bonds for the first time since December 2016

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has reduced purchases of the Japanese government bonds (JGBs) maturing in five to ten years for the first time since December


GBP/JPY fails to hold on to recovery gains amid recent risk-off, Brexit news

GBP/JPY fails to extent previous recovery amid trade/political negative headlines from the UK and abroad.


PBOC to set Yuan reference rate at 7.0306 – Reuters estimate

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to set the Yuan reference rate at 7.0306, having announced the daily fix of 7.0268 on Thursday. As of wr


GBP/USD technical analysis: 1.2150 is the level to beat for the bulls

GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.2088, having created an inverted hammer candlestick pattern on Thursday. An inverted hammer shows the bulls are begi


Trump: If we take off China tariffs, we lose all the cards

Donald Trump has been crossing the wires in early Asia and the latest comment arrived with him saying that the EU treats the US worse than China. Addi


This tech VC is based in Singapore, not Silicon Valley. And the startups she’s seeing are solving problems Silicon Valley isn’t even aware of.

If Arbor Ventures were based in Silicon Valley, it would be “just another firm,” Guzy said. But being located in Asia has given it a leg up.


Cloudflare’s IPO filing warns investors of a disturbing ‘risk factor’: white supremacists

Cloudflare, a web protection service, once served a neo-Nazi website and 8chan, an online forum connected to three deadly mass shootings.


Gold Prices Are the Best Haven to Yield Curve-Based Recession Fears (Quick Take Video)

Gold and Yield Talking Points: • Global yields continue to drop towards zero – or in many cases deeper into negative territory • This collapse may certainly …


S&P 500 Outlook Steadies Despite Recession Fears, EURUSD Tumble Wasn’t a Data Move (Trading Video)

Recession Talking Points: • Risk assets – which took a broad and heavy hit Wednesday – steadied through the past session, even though growth fears continued …


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