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Fed’s Bullard says ignoring the Treasury yield curve has burned him in the past

“Asked by MarketWatch, he declined to quantify a probability of recession and acknowledged that most estimates of them are based off the yield curve” writes European Markets Editor for There are a lot of valid reasons why the inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve — that is, the yield of short-term bonds being higher than that of longer-term securities — isn’t a sign of economic worries.Bullard, at a conference on monetary and financial policy in London, replied that he was burned twice as a Fed staffer in the 2000s on trying to dismiss the predictive powers of the yield curve.Elga Bartsch, head of macro research at BlackRock, asked Bullard whether in an era of rapidly falling natural interest rate estimates and a global savings glut, the yield curve still carries the same significance.

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