News Regulators 

Chicago Fed national economic indicator helped by factory-sector snapback

“Other Fed data has shown that industrial production advanced in June, backing the findings in the Chicago Fed index” writes Rachel Koning Beals for marketwatch.com. The Chicago Fed’s index of national economic activity registered at a positive 0.43 last month, the report out Monday showed.The Chicago Fed index is a weighted average of 85 economic indicators, designed so that zero represents trend growth and a three-month average below negative 0.70 suggests a recession is underway.Separate government data showed that housing starts decreased to 1,173,000 annualized units in June from 1,337,000…

Read More
Crypto Markets News 

Crypto Indicator Suggests Bitcoin Selling Trend…

“A Bitcoin technical trend indicator may be signaling a price increase for the number one cryptocurrency after what has been a tough year for it” writes Rebecca Campbell for livebitcoinnews.com. Notably, while it wasn’t a massive jump in price, Bitcoin rose two percent on Monday to $6,693.In a report from Bloomberg, the Divergence Analysis Inc.’s (DVAN) Buying and Selling Pressure Indicator, which charts the coin’s current price, trend line, and ideal exit points, is suggesting that the selling trend that started on May 14th could be ending soon.According to the report, when the…

Read More
News 

Investors face ‘devastating losses’ if this ‘remarkably accurate’ indicator flashes

“Typically sloping upward, the yield curve is inverted when those long-dated yields fall below short-dated yields” writes Shawn Langlois for marketwatch.com. Without getting too wonky, the yield curve is basically the difference in interest rates on short-term bonds, such as 2-year Treasurys TMUBMUSD02Y, +0.48% , and long-term bonds, like the 10-year TMUBMUSD10Y, +0.19% .We’re not there yet, but with the Fed raising short-term rates and long-term yields holding steady, many on Wall Street see the shift as a real possibility. No yield-curve inversion worries so far this week, with the…

Read More
Markets News Stocks 

This reliable indicator of a bear market in stocks — and a recession — just flashed a warning

“As the table from that column shows, the low unemployment rate of each business and market cycle over the past 70 years preceded a recession by 9.2 months and a bear market by 14.8 months on average” writes Howard Gold for marketwatch.com. That cycle was unusual in that the stock market peaked the same month the unemployment rate bottomed (March 2000), and the recession began in March 2001. Source: marketwatch.com Share This:

Read More
News Regulators 

The Fed is thinking about throwing out a key recession indicator

“Over the last several decades, each time the yield curve “inverted” – when the two-year yield ended up higher than the 10-year yield – a recession followed” writes Wolf Street for businessinsider.com. The yield curve is formed by Treasury yields of different maturities: normally, the two-year yield is quite a bit lower than the 10-year yield.So this has become a popular recession indicator that has cropped up a lot in the discussions of various Fed governors since last year.Today, the two-year yield closed at 2.55% and the 10-year yield at…

Read More
News Regulators 

Here’s the new recession indicator presented to Fed officials

“Federal Reserve policy makers were presented with a new recession indicator, according to minutes released Thursday” writes D C for marketwatch.com. About a 15% chance — which isn’t that much different from what the yield curve suggests.So what does this newfangled indicator have to say about current odds of a recession in the next year?. When the near-term forward spread is negative, it signals that investors expect the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy in the near term, the authors point out.Related: Fed increasingly worried about spillovers from trade but…

Read More
Markets News Stocks 

This little-known but accurate market predictor says stocks still have their mojo

“In fact, the ratio today is at its highest level in more than 10 years. (See accompanying chart.) Why is the gold-platinum ratio a good stock market predictor?” writes Mark Hulbert for marketwatch.com. They found that the gold-platinum ratio is a good stock market predictor; it’s bearish when the ratio is low, and bullish when — as it is now —at high levels.Accordingly, even if the ratio’s forecast that the stock market will be higher in 12 months is correct, the market could easily go a lot lower first.All of…

Read More
News Stocks 

Japan April final leading indicator index 106.2 vs 105.6 prelim

“Preliminary figures can be found here The index is used as a reference to economic conditions, but most of the indicators used to make up the index has already been released individually – so there isn’t much of an impact on this release” reports forexlive.com. The index basically measures up employment data, consumer confidence, production, housing, and stock market data, etc as its leading indicators to derive the number. Source: forexlive.com Share This:

Read More