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One of the biggest indicators of an economic downturn might not be predicting one this time

“The U.S. Treasury yield curve has flattened for much of 2017, and spreads between long and short maturities recently narrowed to decade lows” writes Richard Turnill for businessinsider.com. The short end of the curve is mainly tied to market expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) policy rates.Our BlackRock Growth GPS points to steady and above-trend developed market growth of around 2%.The flatter yield curve is not a recessionary signal, so what is it telling us?. Much of this year’s earlier yield curve flattening represented a reversal of the 2016 steepening that accompanied surging…

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Markets News Stocks 

A leading indicator for stocks is breaking down

“One leading indicator for the equity market is breaking below a key support level, a move that could have negative implications for stocks” writes unknown author for cnbc.com. Here’s why. • The high-yield market has begun selling off in the past week, Maley wrote in an email to CNBC, leading the HYG to decline. Bottom line: The high-yield market is beginning to flash a warning sign for the broader market. Source: cnbc.com Share This:

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Goldman’s global equity chief sees signs of a market top, but says investors shouldn’t worry

“The investment bank has built a “Bear Market Risk Indicator” to gauge when a market may have topped out” writes David Reid for cnbc.com. “The second point is when you get a bear market it doesn’t start with a huge collapse in one direction.Oppenheimer said using 200 years of U.S. data, Goldman splits bear markets into three categories: cyclical bear markets, which typically relate to the economic cycle; event-driven bear markets (such as a war or oil price shock); and structural bear markets, triggered by structural imbalances and financial bubbles.Goldman’s…

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Markets News Stocks 

The stock market hit is an indicator of the fall transition

“Why did the market care about North Korea at that time when serious problems in that part of the world have been going on for months?” writes John Crudele for nypost.com. Right on schedule after the Labor Day holiday, something came along to bop the stock market.Most knowledgeable Wall Street observers think stocks are in a bubble and — as I recently wrote — there are at least a dozen things that could cause problems for Wall Street during the traditionally nervous fall period. In other words, the grown-ups are…

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Markets News 

After Harvey and North Korea, big economic and market gains are coming, Jim Paulsen says

“Investors should entertain whether improved economic momentum in the next few months could abate, and reverse, recent stock market turbulence.”” writes Jeff Cox for cnbc.com. “Many pundits today are understandably focused on the unfolding human tragedy and on the immediate economic hit from Harvey,” Paulsen said.”If this is even directionally correct, economic momentum is likely to rise in the aftermath of the current crisis, thereby providing support for the stock market.”. The combination of Hurricane Harvey and another round of geopolitical turmoil from North Korea has spurred fears of market…

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Netflix CEO says big cash burn will be an ‘indicator of enormous success’

“In some senses the negative free cash flow will be an indicator of enormous success.”” writes Nathan Mcalone for businessinsider.com. On Monday, Netflix updated its estimate for negative free cash flow for 2017.Netflix management, however, sees its high cash burn as a sign of success, since it means its original content strategy is working.”The irony is the faster we grow, and the faster we grow owned originals, the more drawn on free cash flow that will be,” Hastings said. Source: businessinsider.com Share This:

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BANK OF AMERICA: We may have just witnessed the ‘first step’ toward the end of the bull market

“You’d be hard-pressed to find an equity strategist at a major Wall Street firm who has called the end of the 8-year-old bull market” writes Akin Oyedele for businessinsider.com. The bank has a sell-side indicator of stocks, based on its survey of Wall Street strategists’ asset allocation recommendations on the last day of every month.”It’s an uncomfortable call, to be honest,” Lee said about his forecast that the market would end the year lower. Source: businessinsider.com Share This:

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The oldest stock market indicator on Wall Street just flashed a buy signal

“Confirmation of a trend higher sends a “buy” signal in the market; one of a trend lower sends a “sell” signal in the market” writes Frank Cezus for cnbc.com. The stock market has been on a tear this year and more gains may be ahead, according to what some say is the oldest market indicator on Wall Street.The Dow Jones industrial and transportation averages hit all-time highs on Monday, confirming each other’s upside trends and triggering a “buy” signal in the market, according to the “Dow theory.”. He also said…

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