News 

GDP report could fall victim to government shutdown

“For one thing, economists point out that a ream of privately produced reports will give them insight into how the U.S. is performing” writes Jeffry Bartash for marketwatch.com. The U.S. might have topped 3% growth for the third quarter in a row for the first time since 2005, but investors might not hear about it right away if there’s a government shutdown. Source: marketwatch.com Share This:

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Markets News Regulators 

This Year Looks Different for U.S. Inflation as Wall St. Braces

“Their December 2016 forecast, which projected core inflation at 1.8 percent at the end of 2017, proved too optimistic” writes unknown author for bloomberg.com. That’s what a lot of people said in 2017.” For one thing, there may be shadow slack in the labor market that keeps the wage-unemployment relationship from returning.The assumption is accelerating inflation means the Fed will continue raising rates, perhaps more quickly than they had previously thought.Perhaps most crucially, either in response to the tightening labor market, shrinking capacity or President Donald Trump’s tax cut, American…

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GBP News 

EU to lose £500bn and UK to gain £640bn in no-deal Brexit, economist claims

“A study by Patrick Minford, a professor of economics at Cardiff University, states that while a failure to reach a deal would lead to “short term nuisance” for both sides, Brussels would face a “substantial economic loss”, compared to a net gain for the UK. Prof Minford, who chairs the Eurosceptic Economists for Free Trade group, concludes: “It could not be more open and shut who least wants a breakdown”” writes Edward Malnick for telegraph.co.uk. Prof Minford said: “For the UK a breakdown would be a short term nuisance but…

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Dimon thinks even his own economist at J.P. Morgan is dead wrong about GDP, predicts 4% U.S. growth

“As a whole, we look for the package to boost GDP growth by about 0.3%-pt in 2018 and 0.2%-pt in 2019, according to his recent research report” writes Mark Decambre for marketwatch.com. However, few prominent economists are expecting GDP growth to hit a stellar 4% pace this year.CEO Jamie Dimon, who offered a forecast for U.S. economic growth that outstrips even some of the more bullish economists.Dimon said he expects the “competitive tax rate” to encourage deal-making on Wall Street, pointing to Europe which he said is on pace to…

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It’ll be another weak year for the US dollar, Goldman Sachs predicts

“The U.S. currency is set for another soft year despite a hawkish Federal Reserve that could hike interest rates up to four times in the next twelve months, a Goldman Sachs economist told CNBC Tuesday” writes Michael Caronna for cnbc.com. “We still think the dollar is probably going to be relatively soggy, at least against the majors, probably against the emerging economies to a significant degree as well,” Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, said.Rate rises by a central bank traditionally boost a currency as it promotes investors to…

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Economist James K. Galbraith isn’t celebrating Dow 25,000

“James Galbraith: The Dow DJIA, +0.03% is not a serious indicator of the condition of the economy” writes Senior Economics Reporter for marketwatch.com. I think there are really major changes in the structure of the economy going forward.What’s your take on the Republican tax bill?. The problem is that having had the short rates low for such a long time, the long rates have come down. Source: marketwatch.com Share This:

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Crypto Markets News 

One economist says bitcoin could hit $0—or $1 million

“At current levels, it has a market value of about $315 billion, according to CoinMarketCap” writes Markets Reporter for marketwatch.com. According to Morgan Stanley data, the total energy consumption of the bitcoin network consumes as much electricity as 2 million U.S. homes.Covering his bases, Teunis Brosens, a senior economist at ING, sees both extreme targets as possible. See more: Here’s how the U.S. and the world are regulating bitcoin and cryptocurrency. The most bullish call for the digital currency bitcoin so far has been at about $1 million, while the…

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Unemployment ‘extremely serious challenge’ in Iran

“In a TV program on Saturday night, Masoud Nili, a leading economist and the economic advisor to Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, referred to unemployment as an extremely serious challenge in Iran” reports tehrantimes.com. He said while the long-term unemployment rate is six percent in the world the figure is 12 percent in Iran.President Rouhani says that his government prioritizes cutting unemployment and creating over 900,000 job opportunities per year, but Labor Minister Ali Rabiei says the government can create 300,000 to 400,000 job opportunities annually. Source: tehrantimes.com Share This:

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Markets News 

Mortgage rates pause but appear poised to drift higher

“The government-backed mortgage-backer aggregates rates weekly from 125 lenders from across the country to come up with national average mortgage rates” reports washingtonpost.com. The Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates, but its decisions tend to influence them.Mortgage rates remained stuck in a holding pattern this week and have barely budged since October.The refinance index fell 3 percent, while the purchase index slipped 1 percent.But higher rates are not all bad, said Realtor.com senior economist Joseph Kirchner. “Despite decreasing affordability in an already pricey housing market, higher interest rates might have a…

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Crypto Markets News 

Deutsche Bank Economist Lists Bitcoin Crash As a Factor that will Impact Global Markets in 2018

“A Deutsche Bank economist has said that a bitcoin price crash will be one factor that will impact global markets next year” writes Rebecca Campbell for livebitcoinnews.com. While noting that there hasn’t been one for ‘a long time.’ It’s interesting to see that Slok has listed a bitcoin crash as a likely factor that will impact global markets in 2018.Interestingly, a bitcoin crash is listed as the 13th-highest risk, reports Bloomberg.Torsten Slok, Deutsche’s Bank’s Chief International Economist, has identified 30 risks that investors should look out for next year that…

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