Markets News Stocks 

The implied probability of a stock market crash seems wrong

“Indeed, looking at the options market, it is possible to imply the expected probability of a significant decline in asset prices” writes Josh Brown for businessinsider.com. According to the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, the probability of a 25% or greater decline in US equity prices occurring over the next 12 months implied in the options market is only around 10% (see Exhibit 12). Source: businessinsider.com Share This:

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Crypto Markets News 

Bitcoin Price Watch; Hedging The Decline

“Looking the other way, if we see price break above resistance, we are going to enter a long trade towards 4075” writes unknown author for newsbtc.com. As we noted in this morning’s coverage, we were well overdue a near-term correction in the bitcoin price and so long as wider markets don’t panic and sell off their longer-term holdings in anticipation of a deeper decline, everything will be all right. Source: newsbtc.com Share This:

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News 

The economic indicator that hurt the Tories on June 8 is now signalling it will kill them at the next election

“The decline is significant because it was one of very few economic indicators that correctly predicted Prime Minister Theresa May would lose seats in the June 8 snap election” writes Jim Edwards for businessinsider.com. Here, for context, is Tombs’ expectation of what the GfK Consumer Confidence measure said about the Tories’ chances in the election back in May: Note that the crucial level is -10.Car registrations tend to track consumer confidence.The index also flashes a warning that May ought to not to be tempted to call another election anytime soon.If…

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News 

3 ways to protect yourself against cognitive decline

“These are the practical, day to day financial applications or procedures in our lives” writes Danielle Howard for marketwatch.com. A study done in January of 2017 by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College delves into how cognitive aging could affect financial capacity.Since a critical characteristic of cognitive decline or impairment is the unawareness of the deteriorating state, how can we protect ourselves and our loved ones? 1.Your financial capacity is the ability to manage your financial affairs in your own best interest.Read: These simple lifestyle changes can prevent…

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News Stocks 

Dow’s early bid to snap 3-day tumble powered by Apple, Home Depot stocks

“MCD, +0.73% were contributing more than 30 points to the price-weighted Dow DJIA, +0.27% helping it to pare its weekly decline to 0.9%” writes Mark Decambre for marketwatch.com. The Dow Jones Industrial Average on Friday was trying to halt a three-session downdraft, with its early rise supported by a rise in shares of Apple Inc. and Home Depot. Source: marketwatch.com Share This:

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Markets News Regulators 

Janet Yellen is getting the wrong message from a stubborn soft spot in the job market

“But black and Hispanic participation have shown distinct gains over the last couple of years, as the labour market tightened further” writes Pedro Nicolaci Da for businessinsider.com.au. However, a recent rise in the participation rates of black and Hispanic workers, who are disproportionately hurt during economic downturns, suggests Fed officials are wrong.Published in 2014, it claimed that “much — but not all — of the decline in the labour force participation rate since 2007 is structural in nature.A shrunken US workforce, now close to its smallest size since the 1970s,…

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News 

French exports fall; current-account deficit grows

“PARIS–The French current-account deficit widened slightly in June with a decline in exports, the French government said Tuesday” writes Matthew Dalton for marketwatch.com. France’s current-account deficit was 2.1 billion euros ($2.48 billion) in June, compared with EUR1.9 billion in May.The trade deficit rose slightly to EUR4.7 billion, driven by a decline in ship and aeronautical exports. Meanwhile, France’s government budget deficit rose slightly to EUR62.3 billion from EUR61. 8 billion in May. Source: marketwatch.com Share This:

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Fannie and Freddie could need $100 billion bailout in next crisis, stress test finds

“Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could need a taxpayer bailout of as much as $99.6 billion if a severe economic downturn gripped the U.S., their regulator said Monday” writes Andrea Riquier for marketwatch.com. Also read: Congress wouldn’t do it, so Fannie and Freddie reformed themselves The two government-sponsored enterprises have operated under federal conservatorship since the 2008 crisis.Additionally, equity prices would decline about 50% even as volatility picks up. Source: marketwatch.com Share This:

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News Stocks 

Dow ekes out another record as U.S. stocks close mostly lower

“U.S. stocks closed mostly lower on Thursday, pressured by a sharp decline in energy shares, though the Dow bucked the trend to close slightly higher and put in its seventh straight record close” writes Markets Reporter for marketwatch.com. The blue-chip index has risen for eight straight sessions, its longest such streak since February.The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -0.35% slid 22.3 points to 6,340.3, a decline of 0.4%. Source: marketwatch.com Share This:

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Regular alcohol drinkers have lower risk of cognitive decline as they age, a new study finds

“Alcohol use is a factor in approximately 88,000 deaths every year in the US, and drinking alcohol is associated with an increased risk of developing certain cancers” writes Finanzen Net Gmbh for businessinsider.com. A meta-analysis of 74 studies found that moderate drinkers have lower risk of cognitive decline than non-drinkers.Compared to non-drinkers, the people who drank heavily were the most unlikely to show signs of cognitive decline before age 85. Source: businessinsider.com Share This:

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