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One of the biggest indicators of an economic downturn might not be predicting one this time

“The U.S. Treasury yield curve has flattened for much of 2017, and spreads between long and short maturities recently narrowed to decade lows” writes Richard Turnill for The short end of the curve is mainly tied to market expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) policy rates.Our BlackRock Growth GPS points to steady and above-trend developed market growth of around 2%.The flatter yield curve is not a recessionary signal, so what is it telling us?. Much of this year’s earlier yield curve flattening represented a reversal of the 2016 steepening that accompanied surging economic growth and inflation expectations after the U.S. presidential election.

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